LDOLDOLido DAO
$0.26
24h
-13.51%
15 Aug, 15:20

NEST mechanism unlikely to trigger LDO flywheel

Neutral-12.20%

AI Summary

Author analyzes LDO's potential from NEST mechanism, concluding it's more likely to provide a price floor than trigger significant upside flywheel without ETH reaching $3k or substantial stETH supply increase.

So, NEST is more likely to put some floor for $LDO than actually triggering a flywheel. In the current scenario, there is no budget allocation for programmatic buybacks. It would require ETH to pump around $3k or the supply to increase to 14.2m stETH (or obviously a mix of both price action and supply increase) to start creating buy pressure on LDO. In both scenarios, anyway the NEST buying per day would be fairly limited and LDO has not really more distribution going on, but in that case obviously the upside on ETH would be much more. Supply increase of that size is also unlikely per se, especially given that EtherFi eliminated the restaking dimension from weETH so there's not really a perceived risk difference between wstETH and weETH anymore I think (not saying there's not one, but the perception is essentially zero'd). Then again, having a floor with programmatic buybacks is not bad. Just, this is not the HYPE flywheel.

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