Bullish on user distribution advantage despite high valuation

After recently researching Citrini Research's "Breaking The Wall" article regarding US stocks, and reflecting on the past few years of vigorous promotion of US dollar stablecoins and the current wave of RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization, combined with the US companies benefiting from these trends, the opportunities for certainty are quite obvious. Let me elaborate! 🧐 Recently, whether it's the SEC or CFTC, US government departments have been strongly supporting RWA. There is one thing worth pondering: In the future, more and more people will participate in financial markets through crypto wallets, ultimately using the US dollar, just in the form of stablecoins. They will still buy US Treasuries and US stocks; while crypto assets will exist, they will be gradually diluted! The entry point for trading has changed, but the sales reach of US assets has actually expanded. From this perspective, it becomes easy to understand why the US is willing to promote stablecoins and support asset tokenization. I believe there is an investment thread hidden here worth studying for the long term: the way global capital enters the US dollar system is changing, and the resulting financial services offer many opportunities. However, understanding the direction does not mean you can make money by simply buying any RWA company. Next, I will share my own thoughts. 🧐 Let's start with an ordinary user. Suppose a overseas user converts part of their savings into USDC. Their thought process might be simple: keep some dollars, transfer them conveniently, and trade at any time. But on the issuer's end, this money corresponds to reserve assets, including short-term US Treasuries. In other words, when a user stores a digital dollar in their wallet, it may create demand for a Treasury bond behind the scenes. The user likely hasn't studied US fiscal policy nor actively decided to finance the US government. This demand arises naturally as the product is used. According to disclosures by the US Treasury in September 2026, stablecoin issuers already hold nearly $200 billion in short-term Treasuries and other near-maturity US bonds. This is what makes stablecoins attractive to the US. In the past, the use of the dollar relied on networks of banks, trade, and financial institutions. Now, wallets and applications can also help the dollar reach users. When holding dollars becomes more convenient, the dollar gains another method to attract global savings. Therefore, my understanding of the stablecoin logic is: global users need a convenient tool for the dollar, issuers need to allocate reserves, and the US thereby gains more potential buyers for short-term bonds. This logic holds, but don't casually extrapolate it to "the US debt problem is solved." Stablecoins primarily affect demand for short-term US Treasuries. If funds merely shift from money market funds that previously held Treasuries, the net new demand might be limited. The interest the US government needs to pay won't disappear just because assets are on-chain. Sales channels have expanded, but the fiscal ledger must still be balanced. Thinking one step further. If a person already holds dollars in their wallet, what will they do next? Some will use it for payments, others for continued trading, and some hope this money generates returns. At this point, Treasury funds, US stocks, and credit products have the opportunity to enter the same wallet. From dollar balances to dollar assets, and then to collateral, lending, and trading, a complete suite of financial services can revolve around this user. I believe the long-term benefit of the US promoting RWA lies here: making it easier for global capital to enter US dollar assets, and giving them more reason to stay within them. This also helps me re-understand "US stock tokenization." Many people think that moving US stocks on-chain to allow more people to buy them can solve the problem of high US stock valuations. I only agree with the first half of this judgment. Tokenization has the potential to expand the buyer base and improve how assets are transferred and used. However, a company's profits haven't changed; if it was trading at a 40x P/E ratio before, it remains at 40x after going on-chain. Convenience in buying doesn't mean cheapness. Moreover, more convenient trading channels are equally convenient for selling. US stock tokenization solves certain issues regarding investment thresholds and usage efficiency, but valuations ultimately must still be supported by earnings. US regulators are also advancing in this direction. In September 2026, the SEC approved temporary, conditional exemptions for on-chain trading of some tokenized stocks, but still set requirements for trading scope, scale, and technology. The direction is visible, but specific business implementations need to happen step by step. I feel that the changes worth imagining in RWA might occur after purchasing the assets. Today, we are accustomed to keeping stocks, cash, and funds in different accounts. When we need money, we sell, transfer, or apply for mortgage financing. If compliant on-chain assets can be transferred, collateralized, and settled more conveniently in the future, the utility of a single asset could increase. Holding a short-term Treasury fund or tokenized US stock allows you to earn returns while potentially using it as collateral for certain trading scenarios, providing greater support for living expenses or consumer markets. From an investment perspective, this means increased service opportunities and scenarios. Someone charges fees during issuance, someone manages holdings, someone provides liquidity during trading, and risk control and collateral management are needed during financing. Assets entering the system is just the beginning. Only through repeated subsequent use can continuous revenue be formed, expanding the scope of financial services and creating more barrier-based competitive advantages. Perhaps this is the great leap forward for the US in its advantage in next-generation financial technology. Following this line of thought, looking at the companies in the chart again becomes more interesting. I would first place them back into their respective businesses, and then look at their market caps. 📍 $CRCL: Mastering the issuance and usage network of digital dollars Circle's market cap is approximately $21.4 billion. In Q2 2026, the ending circulating supply of USDC was approximately $73.3 billion. For Circle, the reserve yield behind these balances is currently the main source of revenue. Its long-term space lies in getting more enterprises and users to continuously use USDC and be willing to retain balances. What is most worth focusing on here is "how much money stays," and how much of the yield Circle ultimately gets to share. Growth in circulating supply is good, but declining interest rates and higher channel splits could offset some growth. Reserve assets also correspond to holders' redemption rights and cannot be treated as cash freely usable by shareholders. My judgment on CRCL: The business direction is clear, and profits depend on three things: balances, interest rates, and splits. Overall, given the current sticky high inflation and high interest rate environment, this is a good thing for CRCL. Additionally, one should pay attention to the Arc public chain and its added value impact, seeing if it can achieve "walking on two legs." If payment and infrastructure revenues can be built up in the future, its revenue structure will become even more robust. 📍 $COIN: Participating in fee collection across multiple links Coinbase's market cap is approximately $47.6 billion. Trading, custody, stablecoins, Base—these businesses give it the opportunity to participate in multiple post-on-chain asset links. In Q2 2026, subscription and service revenue was approximately $555 million, accounting for 48% of net revenue. This proportion fully demonstrates that Coinbase has done quite well in diversification, especially since Q2 trading revenue was only $599 million, roughly comparable. Its advantage is relatively complete business coverage: once assets come in, they can be custodied, traded, or connected to other services. The risk is that these businesses are still affected by market activity, coin prices, and interest rates. An increase in revenue sources does not mean cyclical risks have disappeared; it remains highly correlated with BTC's four-year cycle. I would place COIN in the position of observing the overall expansion of on-chain finance. Simultaneously holding both $COIN and $CRCL requires realizing that both companies participate in the economic distribution of USDC, so their risks have some overlap. However, I am currently holding both companies. 📍 $HOOD: The user entry point itself has value Robinhood's market cap is approximately $98.8 billion. A platform that already possesses users, account funds, and trading habits usually finds it easier to launch new products than to find customers from scratch. In Q2 2026, Robinhood had approximately 28.4 million funded clients and platform assets of approximately $369 billion. This is an important foundation for its participation in asset tokenization. However, Robinhood's recent public chain initiative has fizzled out. Because the meme aspect was too explosive initially, market opinions were mixed, and compliance regulators began to scrutinize it. It has gradually started to keep a low profile, but currently, it is too low-profile, with basically no discussion volume. Among these, I value HOOD's distribution capability the most, but a market cap nearing $100 billion also means the market has already paid a lot for growth. For future success to yield investment returns, it must perform better than what is already priced into today's stock price, which is indeed not small difficulty. 📍 $SECZ: The engineer responsible for landing RWA tokenization Securitize's market cap is approximately $1.9 billion, with business directly related to RWA tokenization. Issuance, registration, transfer, and asset services—the deeper these links are executed, the higher the difficulty for clients to migrate systems might be. But its latest quarterly data is eye-opening: transaction volume grew 147% year-over-year, yet revenue decreased by 5% year-over-year. These numbers are more inspiring than any "trillion-dollar market" story. Business scale expansion does not necessarily lead to synchronous revenue expansion. Product mix, pricing models, and revenue recognition timing all affect results. Based on the行情 platform's income over the past twelve months, $SECZ has a Price-to-Sales ratio of approximately 30x, meaning the price already includes high expectations. I will track it closely, but what I most want to see is continuous improvement in revenue and profitability. 📍 $FIGR: An RWA company verified by actual operational results Figure's market cap is approximately $6.4 billion. It entered from businesses like home equity credit, connecting loan origination, financing, sale, and trading. What attracts me about this direction is that clients adopting the product have clear economic reasons: can it save costs? Can it improve capital turnover efficiency? In Q2 2026, Figure's net revenue was approximately $226 million, up 113% year-over-year, with net profit of approximately $87.44 million. By Q3, preliminary disclosure showed consumer loan market business volume of approximately $5.119 billion, up 107% year-over-year. This is an operational scale indicator, not revenue, and does not yet include business volume after the Kiavi platform acquisition. It already has observable revenue and profit, but credit businesses always face house prices, default rates, and financing conditions. Therefore, I will prioritize researching FIGR's operational realization, especially whether credit quality changes during the growth process, which is particularly worth attention. 📍 $BLSH: Seeking securities service clients through M&A Bullish's market cap is approximately $4.8 billion. I am more focused on its proposed acquisition of Equiniti. The latter possesses securities registration and shareholder service businesses, helping Bullish approach issuers and their assets. However, the approximate $4.2 billion transaction value includes assumed debt and stock consideration. Opportunities and risks coexist within. Therefore, researching BLSH requires calculating post-M&A share count, debt, and cash flow together. If comparing today's market cap solely against post-M&A profits, I personally lean towards optimism, making it worth close attention. 📍 $BLK, $WT: Traditional asset management companies are also expanding the usage scope of their products BlackRock's market cap is approximately $166.3 billion, WisdomTree approximately $3.3 billion. They originally possessed products, clients, and management capabilities. Tokenization may help funds connect to more wallets, institutions, and trading scenarios. The difference between the two lies in size. BlackRock's group scale is very large; even if RWA grows rapidly, its short-term impact on total profits may be limited. Buying BLK is mainly about investing in the entire asset management platform. WisdomTree is smaller in scale, so changes in its tokenization business are more worth tracking. The company recently disclosed that related AUM has approached $1.3 billion, growing approximately 65% within the year. Currently, the growth speed is very rapid, making it more worthy of long-term tracking. My view: Both companies have existing business support, but do not directly equate the scale of client-managed assets with money shareholders can earn. Ultimately, it depends on fees, costs, and net inflows. 📍 $BHYP: Looking at it alone, it is a fund holding $HYPE BHYP is the Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF, not a listed company stock. The fund's net asset value is approximately $180 million. This number represents fund size, not Hyperliquid's valuation. It corresponds to the investment logic of HYPE: trading ecosystem growth, fee distribution, repurchases, and changes in token supply. I will treat BHYP as an independent exposure to the on-chain trading ecosystem research, and cannot directly apply listed company profit and P/E frameworks. Putting these companies together, I反而 feel that the easiest mistake in RWA investment is too early counting industry prospects as one's own收益. Assets will go on-chain, but who makes money needs continued verification. Companies can make money, but whether the current price is appropriate needs recalculation. Both steps are indispensable. The combined weight of the first five targets in the chart is 84%, and multiple businesses are jointly influenced by crypto market activity, stablecoin growth, and risk appetite. It looks like buying many names, but practically, it might still be betting on the same market environment. I prefer to continuously track based on three questions: First, do clients repeatedly use the service? Completing one issuance versus assets staying in the system long-term for trading, collateral, and settlement creates a huge difference in value. Second, after scale growth, did profits remain? Channel splits, price competition, and compliance costs all affect the final result. Third, after the company grows, did per-share value increase? Financing, M&A, and equity incentives continuously increase share counts, so original shareholders may not fully enjoy business growth. The benefits of the US promoting RWA, I believe, are now relatively clear: make digital dollars more usable, make US dollar assets more accessible to global capital, and let financial services continue to unfold around these assets. For us, what is worth seeking are companies that can retain clients long-term, charge reasonable fees, and continuously increase per-share earnings. If three years later, on-chain asset scales multiply by tenfold, but the companies you hold haven't earned significantly more, this investment could still be a failure. Therefore,综上所述, the targets I personally favor are: $CRCL, $HOOD, $SECZ, $COIN, which are also what I currently hold. However, I will still long-term track their revenue growth and the long-term value brought by diversification. DYOR🙏 For trading US stocks, I choose to use the #RWA US Stock Tokenization Platform #MSX, allowing us to jointly invest and participate in the US stock market: http://msx.com/?code=Vu2v44 Early US stock investment fans and partners can DM me, fill out the form, and enter the US stock exchange and discussion community for free (currently limited to 10 people per week, assistant review, may take a little time, grateful🙏)!