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23 Aug, 07:49
Momentum breakout strategy case study on SUI
Bullish-11.46%
AI Summary
The author explains a momentum trading framework using SUI as a case study, analyzing three successful breakouts with positive technical structure.
$SUI explained through a review case study:
First, we will simply set up a complete trade in 4 steps:
0. Style Selection: Momentum (betting on breakouts) / Mean Reversion (betting on reversals)
Rule: Choose one to determine the underlying trading logic.
Getting Started Suggestion: Prioritize starting with momentum strategies; they have fewer variables and a lower learning curve. However, long-term development requires mastering both strategies.
1. Entry
Rule Template: When Condition X is triggered → Use a limit/market order to execute entry at Price Y.
Getting Started Suggestion: Prioritize using limit orders; define Condition X and Price Y as simply and clearly as possible.
Missing out on some profitable trades is a characteristic of this system itself, not an error. Record them for future review.
2. Stop-Loss
Rule Template: When Condition X is triggered → Place a market stop-loss order at Price Y.
Getting Started Suggestion: For long positions, place the stop-loss below the swing low; for short positions, place it above the swing high.
3. Take-Profit
Rule Template: When the price reaches target Price X, it indicates the judgment was correct; execute take-profit.
Getting Started Suggestion: It is difficult to perfect the take-profit setup on the first try. The principle is to set a conservative and narrow take-profit range rather than one that is too loose.
Next, let's perform a simple analysis and review using this chart:
1: Adopt a momentum strategy.
2: Use the introduction from the referenced tweet to judge the market environment.
3: Taking SUI as an example, this upward wave in the chart experienced a total of three breakouts.
Breakout 1:
The market wicked, forming an LTF resistance level. Subsequently, the market stabilized near this resistance level until a breakout event occurred.
After the breakout event, the price retraced to the resistance level but did not fall below it. This means the market accepted the price area above the breakout, driving further upside.
Therefore, when the price retraced to the resistance level and the market formed a brief consolidation without a strong breakdown, that was a good entry position.
Our falsification point is also very clear: if it breaks below the resistance level, place your stop-loss slightly lower based on the ATR.
Breakout 2:
After the breakout event, the market remained in the resistance area without falling back into the previous correction range, continuing to push upward.
After forming a structural high, it retraced to the previous resistance level where price found support again, indicating the market validated the price after the second breakout.
Breakout 3:
Similar to the first two, Breakout 3 was actually stronger than the previous ones because a gap formed in between. A breakout with a gap is the strongest type of breakout; the market clearly accepted the price area of Breakout 3, as it is far above the resistance level of Breakout 3.
This gap has not been filled to date, including when SUI wicked.