9 Nov, 16:26

AI narrative ends, focus shifts to earnings and cyclicality

Bearish+1.91%

AI Summary

The author argues that the AI narrative phase has concluded and the market is now pricing in peak cyclicality, expecting a shift to fundamental earnings verification and a slower, more volatile market trajectory rather than a straight bull run.

Cisco waits for better applications and users after building the network, while AI waits for users and applications to demand better AI. Of course, many people feel that current AI is already good enough, but others believe it still falls short. The story has been told; now it's time to talk about performance. The market has already treated it as a cyclical stock hitting its peak, requiring every product innovation, new business venture, and corporate earnings report to prove itself. In between, there will be a wave of shattered token pseudo-demand, a wave of declining demand due to middle-class unemployment, and the end of smooth, one-sided upward trends. Many new applications will gradually emerge. I think this is also what the Democratic Party aims to do: suppress short-term mania, reap the fruits of victory, and achieve a slow bull market with their hands.

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